How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: al-gos.info/video/sZikY9WC3ajcqps.html
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! www.patreon.com/minutephysics
Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/

MinutePhysics is on twitter - @minutephysics
And facebook - minutephysics

Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!

Created by Henry Reich

Komente

  1. choreomaniac

    choreomaniac22 orë më parë

    Pennsylvania department of health has adopted this graphic animation!

  2. Arvind Nande

    Arvind NandeDitë më parë

    And another Indian!

  3. m mandrewa

    m mandrewaDitë më parë

    The graph (and video) should be modified by doing a log plot of new reported deaths per million versus a log plot of total reported deaths per million. In the absence of that it is quite misleading and is virtually certain to lead to widespread misunderstanding.

  4. m mandrewa

    m mandrewaDitë më parë

    I like this a lot. It seems like a good idea. But where the heck is the follow-up? Since this important you should be updating it at least once a week. You don't have to do it yourself, just modify the intro, not the video, but the blub below the video, by posting a link to someone else that is doing this.

  5. m mandrewa

    m mandrewaDitë më parë

    Ok, I've found it. See aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths The US fell off the line in the first half of April. And I believe that graph and the graph in this minutephysics video would be improved if it did a log/log plot of new reported deaths per million versus total reported deaths per million. As it is this plot falsely makes it appear as if many countries that are not doing well, like for instance Belgium, are doing very well, simply and only because they are small.

  6. Duncan

    DuncanDitë më parë

    .

  7. houndarchon1

    houndarchon1Ditë më parë

    the aatishb site seems down :( could you reupload the covidtrends data and graphs to some other place? thanks!

  8. Hamisi Abdallah

    Hamisi Abdallah2 ditë më parë

    You can make this Juice at home to attack Covid-19 Virus.al-gos.info/video/z7Finaytss-dbmw.html

  9. Gordon GM

    Gordon GM2 ditë më parë

    Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that

  10. Initially Intellectual

    Initially Intellectual2 ditë më parë

    Why you stoped uploading

  11. Jesse Wood

    Jesse Wood2 ditë më parë

    “In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George

  12. BugPvP :p

    BugPvP :p3 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="91">1:31</a> OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"

  13. Randy Smith

    Randy Smith3 ditë më parë

    That might as well be a plot of China's credibility... DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!

  14. Jinhong PARK

    Jinhong PARK3 ditë më parë

    My country: *I AM MEDICINE* My country: South Korea

  15. Kalan Saunders

    Kalan Saunders4 ditë më parë

    Covid 19 is ending in Australia

  16. peppercorn owl

    peppercorn owlDitë më parë

    Yay!

  17. Eben Visher

    Eben Visher4 ditë më parë

    What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

  18. 王荺勝

    王荺勝4 ditë më parë

    Chinese data are fake

  19. 刘娅

    刘娅4 ditë më parë

    well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

  20. Alexander Jackson

    Alexander Jackson5 ditë më parë

    Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

  21. Eva Lam

    Eva Lam5 ditë më parë

    China is LYING !!!!

  22. 江枫

    江枫5 ditë më parë

    That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

  23. nitchvideo

    nitchvideo5 ditë më parë

    Here is a powerful source of understanding. al-gos.info/video/za9ylLBr19fKgac.html and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

  24. John the Greek

    John the Greek5 ditë më parë

    Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though

  25. Freeda Peeple

    Freeda Peeple5 ditë më parë

    I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

  26. Benjamin Genco

    Benjamin Genco6 ditë më parë

    I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

  27. m mandrewa

    m mandrewaDitë më parë

    And I was right. I've tracked it down and the US data begins to fall off that line sometime in the first half of April.

  28. m mandrewa

    m mandrewaDitë më parë

    I'm pretty certain it has. This graph and video are from two months ago, when the American epidemic had just begun. In fact I'll bet the US data plummeted over a month ago, back in the first half of April.

  29. Jewelry Bag

    Jewelry Bag6 ditë më parë

    This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

  30. wojeff

    wojeff6 ditë më parë

    March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered

  31. Eugenia Sum

    Eugenia Sum6 ditë më parë

    They didn’t include Taiwan tho

  32. wojeff

    wojeff6 ditë më parë

    I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan

  33. Bern Metro

    Bern Metro6 ditë më parë

    Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

  34. m mandrewa

    m mandrewaDitë më parë

    @wojeff Ok thank you again. It me a few minutes to figure out what they were doing and to find the plot of new reported deaths versus total reported deaths. Here's the problem. Why not normalize the data? That is divide the numbers on each axis by the population of the country. That would make it possible to compare countries. As it is right now, it makes it appear that the United States is doing very badly, when this is largely an artifact of it being both the largest country plotted plus having more complete data.

  35. m mandrewa

    m mandrewaDitë më parë

    @wojeff Thanks!

  36. wojeff

    wojeff6 ditë më parë

    aatishb.com/covidtrends/

  37. Jorge Cossa

    Jorge Cossa6 ditë më parë

    Nice

  38. Mario Z

    Mario Z7 ditë më parë

    The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

  39. wojeff

    wojeff6 ditë më parë

    That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths

  40. Yash Pal Goyal

    Yash Pal Goyal8 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="386">6:26</a> please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right: translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE

  41. Yash Pal Goyal

    Yash Pal Goyal8 ditë më parë

    otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

  42. Arwah Sapi

    Arwah Sapi9 ditë më parë

    Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

  43. Fez Paladin

    Fez Paladin9 ditë më parë

    WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?

  44. sk Farhan

    sk Farhan10 ditë më parë

    Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?

  45. John Hailstone

    John Hailstone10 ditë më parë

    And post-viral effects.

  46. LIL JON'S

    LIL JON'S10 ditë më parë

    Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

  47. IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

    IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ10 ditë më parë

    >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

  48. tom091178

    tom09117811 ditë më parë

    Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

  49. Tae-young Kim

    Tae-young Kim11 ditë më parë

    중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

  50. North Korea

    North Korea11 ditë më parë

    America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

  51. no name

    no name3 ditë më parë

    Russia: Cyka Blyat

  52. Wendull 81

    Wendull 815 ditë më parë

    Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

  53. 52marli

    52marli12 ditë më parë

    I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

  54. Dodger Yassel

    Dodger Yassel12 ditë më parë

    You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

  55. khoen Da boss

    khoen Da boss13 ditë më parë

    Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

  56. Jean Poutine

    Jean Poutine13 ditë më parë

    Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

  57. Davin Riedstra

    Davin Riedstra13 ditë më parë

    This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

  58. Mister Comple

    Mister Comple11 ditë më parë

    aatishb.com/covidtrends/

  59. Parakmi I

    Parakmi I13 ditë më parë

    To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

  60. pragadeesh sv

    pragadeesh sv14 ditë më parë

    can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?

  61. DONG YEUN KIM

    DONG YEUN KIM14 ditë më parë

    COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

  62. Rin

    Rin14 ditë më parë

    this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

  63. Mister Comple

    Mister Comple11 ditë më parë

    your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

  64. jokinabadsbs

    jokinabadsbs14 ditë më parë

    China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

  65. CircleDrawing

    CircleDrawing15 ditë më parë

    US isn't tough

  66. 김철수

    김철수16 ditë më parë

    국뽕...

  67. Jacob E Owens

    Jacob E Owens17 ditë më parë

    Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

  68. Simranjeet singh matharoo

    Simranjeet singh matharoo17 ditë më parë

    "don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there

  69. what is life

    what is life18 ditë më parë

    Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

  70. 江枫

    江枫5 ditë më parë

    Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

  71. Rachel’s rants I.

    Rachel’s rants I.18 ditë më parë

    Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

  72. AGR

    AGR18 ditë më parë

    Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

  73. 소고기커피

    소고기커피18 ditë më parë

    im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

  74. Paul Matencio

    Paul Matencio19 ditë më parë

    Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

  75. Naomi Harding

    Naomi Harding19 ditë më parë

    Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

  76. Ciron Soauv

    Ciron Soauv19 ditë më parë

    What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

  77. Bigdatamonk Inc.

    Bigdatamonk Inc.20 ditë më parë

    @minutephysics Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

  78. banbanrocks

    banbanrocks20 ditë më parë

    Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

  79. Russ Wilkie

    Russ Wilkie17 ditë më parë

    It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

  80. Ron Chasr

    Ron Chasr20 ditë më parë

    Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.

  81. Robert Lockwood

    Robert Lockwood20 ditë më parë

    Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.

  82. dead pool

    dead pool21 ditë më parë

    Are we wining or losing

  83. Matthew Snyder

    Matthew Snyder21 ditë më parë

    al-gos.info/video/uq5qdsprtb6xkps.html

  84. XCMysterious Hope

    XCMysterious Hope21 ditë më parë

    After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

  85. Harb Winetin

    Harb Winetin21 ditë më parë

    China's number of cases are a lie of course.

  86. banbanrocks

    banbanrocks20 ditë më parë

    People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.

  87. savemelofi

    savemelofi21 ditë më parë

    Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?

  88. savemelofi

    savemelofi15 ditë më parë

    @banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.

  89. banbanrocks

    banbanrocks20 ditë më parë

    It's about the truth, not CCP.

  90. Ben E

    Ben E21 ditë më parë

    Probably should throw out chinas numbers...

  91. DEMONSTRIA WOO

    DEMONSTRIA WOO21 ditë më parë

    Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.

  92. banbanrocks

    banbanrocks20 ditë më parë

    Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed

  93. DEMONSTRIA WOO

    DEMONSTRIA WOO21 ditë më parë

    I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”

  94. IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

    IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ9 ditë më parë

    The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.

  95. Prakash Goyal

    Prakash Goyal21 ditë më parë

    Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho

  96. supersonic2K8

    supersonic2K822 ditë më parë

    This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)

  97. 한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller

    한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller22 ditë më parë

    Just don't do it.

  98. Eclipse Z

    Eclipse Z22 ditë më parë

    My country *I AM SPEED* Also my country- *The USA*

  99. aredesuyo

    aredesuyo22 ditë më parë

    So basically, when you consider all the caveats, you just wasted your time making a nice visualization of a bunch of bullshit.

  100. Russ Wilkie

    Russ Wilkie17 ditë më parë

    This is about Covid-19, not about your conception

  101. Harrison Yoo

    Harrison Yoo22 ditë më parë

    Not China though

  102. Our World Visualised

    Our World Visualised22 ditë më parë

    Good stuff

  103. Tim Allen

    Tim Allen22 ditë më parë

    Is there a more up to date version of the data yet? I would love to see how the UK compares with the rest of the world.